ProbStorm — Weather-Market Research Intelligence
Research Card How It Works What It Does Beta Access FAQ
Research-only beta · No trade execution · Eligible jurisdictions only

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ProbStorm discovers active Polymarket weather markets, fetches the weather forecast for those cities only, estimates calibrated bucket probabilities, and calculates a contract edge when strict evidence gates pass. It is research-only — it does not place trades, route orders, custody funds, connect to customer wallets, or provide advice. Every decision is yours.

View sample research card

Forecast data · METAR observations · Freshness checks · Pricing-gap candidates · Paper validation · User-controlled decisions

weather_lane Example
Weather market

Highest temperature in NYC on July 4 · 32°C

Public Price
62¢
Weather Context
58%
Gap
-4
Research note: price may lead current evidence

Latest METAR and forecast trend do not support the market move.

Forecast updated 12 min ago METAR updated 6 min ago
Research status
Watch Paper-test Ignore
Research only · user decides
Sample research card

A research card, explained.

This is the kind of research-only output ProbStorm produces when a public market price and the independent weather evidence may not fully agree. It is context for your own review — not a recommendation.

Sample research card — not trading advice Example
Weather market

Highest temperature in London on June 20 — 26°C contract

Public Price
100%
Weather Context
≈84%
Gap
-16
Research note: market priced more confidently than evidence

The market has already priced the contract as certain. ProbStorm checks whether fresh forecast data and METAR observations actually support that confidence — and here they may not fully justify 100%. How you interpret that is entirely your decision.

Inputs
Forecast update9 min ago
METAR observation4 min ago
Freshness statusFresh
Market movepriced as certain
Price vs context gap-16
Research status
Watch Paper-test Ignore

ProbStorm does not act on this status. Any decision is made independently by you, outside ProbStorm.

This sample is for research workflow illustration only. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell, trade, or use any prediction-market platform.

Was this useful?
Useful Confusing Wrong I researched this I ignored this
What would you need to trust this research?
Price vs ProbStorm context Gap −16 pp
Market price100%
ProbStorm context84%
Freshness & evidence
Forecast provider9m ago · usable
METAR observation4m ago · usable
Data freshnessFresh

Explanation · Market confidence may be stronger than current weather evidence supports.

Evidence quality check
  • Supported market type
  • Contract semantics verified
  • Forecast fresh
  • METAR fresh
  • Gap threshold reached
  • No conflicting observations
  • Historical pattern available
  • Paper validation enabled
Result Research-only pricing-gap card
Decision trail
Market selected Forecast + METAR checked Pricing gap measured Research card produced You review independently
The pricing gap

Where the pricing gap comes from.

A pricing-gap candidate is the difference between what the public market price implies and what fresh weather evidence actually suggests. ProbStorm surfaces it for your review.

Public price

The public prediction market shows what participants currently believe.

Weather reality

Forecast and METAR data show what current conditions suggest.

Pricing gap

ProbStorm compares public price against the current weather context.

Research output

You get a research-only card to ignore, watch, or paper-test — every decision is yours.

Public price → Forecast + METAR → ProbStorm gap check → Your independent review

How it works

How ProbStorm builds a research card.

01

Select markets

ProbStorm tracks a set of monitored public weather markets.

02

Pull data

It ingests forecast-provider data and METAR observations.

03

Check freshness & evidence

It flags stale or weak data before it is used in a card.

04

Compare price vs context

It measures the gap between public price and current weather context.

05

Output research status

You get a research-only status — Watch, Paper-test, or Ignore — and decide independently.

Markets → Data → Freshness → Gap → Research status

Evidence trail

Every research card starts with evidence freshness.

ProbStorm does not ask you to trust a black-box signal. Each research card shows what evidence was used, when it was refreshed, and why the output was marked Watch, Paper-test, or Ignore.

Research note
Possible overpricing
Gap
62¢ vs 58%
Evidence
METAR + forecast
Freshness
Fresh · 6m
Action mode
Watch · you decide
What it does

What ProbStorm does.

A research workflow, end to end: read public market context, check independent weather evidence, flag weak data, and produce a transparent research-only card you review yourself.

01

Reads public market context

Shows public market price, contract metadata, event date, resolution details, and current market state.

02

Checks independent weather evidence

Compares forecast data, METAR observations, station context, and freshness timestamps for those cities only.

03

Flags stale or weak data

Highlights when evidence is too old, conflicting, low-confidence, or incomplete before it is used.

04

Produces research-only pricing-gap cards

Summarizes public price versus calibrated weather context with a transparent evidence trail.

05

Supports paper validation and review

Lets you paper-test hypotheses and review research quality before making any independent decision elsewhere.

Trust boundaries

Research software only. No execution layer.

ProbStorm is intelligence, not infrastructure. It never touches your funds, your wallet, or any order. These are hard product boundaries.

No trade execution
No order routing
No wallet custody
No customer private keys
No automated trading for customers
No guaranteed returns
No financial, legal, tax, gambling, or investment advice
No support for restricted jurisdictions or VPN/proxy bypass
Who it's for

Built for evidence-driven research.

ProbStorm is for people who already understand prediction-market risk and want auditable evidence before they decide anything — independently, and within the law where they are.

Independent prediction-market researchers

See whether public pricing appears aligned with fresh weather evidence.

Weather-data analysts

Connect forecast and METAR observations to how markets price weather outcomes.

Systematic research teams

Turn weather markets into a repeatable scan → compare → validate research workflow.

Eligible adults, lawful jurisdictions

Adults in jurisdictions where their use of relevant platforms is lawful and who need evidence trails and paper validation.

Who it's not for

ProbStorm is not the right tool if you are…

  • ×A minor
  • ×In a restricted jurisdiction
  • ×Seeking to bypass geoblocking, VPN restrictions, or platform terms
  • ×Seeking guaranteed profit
  • ×Looking for automated order execution
  • ×In need of financial, gambling, tax, investment, or legal advice
  • ×Not comfortable with prediction-market risk
Interpreting the output

How a pricing gap forms.

Prediction-market prices can react to incomplete, stale, or noisy information. Weather evidence changes quickly across forecasts, observations, and local station data. ProbStorm shows whether public pricing appears aligned with fresh weather evidence — so you can read it, not act on it blindly.

01

Market price moves

Crowd behavior, momentum, or stale assumptions push the contract price.

02

Fresh weather data arrives

Forecast updates and METAR observations change the real-world context.

03

ProbStorm measures the gap

The system compares public price against current calibrated weather context.

04

Evidence is gated

Freshness and evidence-quality gates decide whether the gap is worth research at all.

05

You review independently

A research-only card is produced. Any decision is made by you, outside ProbStorm.

ProbStorm does not guarantee outcomes. A pricing gap is research context, not a prediction — markets can move against any view.

No guaranteed outcomes

Markets can move against any view. ProbStorm improves research discipline, not the laws of risk.

Fresh data first

Stale forecast or observation data weakens a card. ProbStorm flags freshness before anything is shown.

You stay in control

ProbStorm never acts. Every decision is made independently by you, outside the product.

Access

Research beta access.

ProbStorm is invite-only while the weather-market research engine is being hardened. We onboard eligible users through a short demo and eligibility review. Access may be declined based on location, intended use, or compliance risk.

Eligibility and jurisdiction confirmations are required before access.

Research beta · Invite-only · Demo required

Research beta

Invite-only

For eligible researchers, weather-data analysts, and systematic research teams. Access is granted through a short demo and eligibility review.

Demo required before access.

What happens next
1Request a demo
2We review fit
3You explore research cards
4We collect feedback

Access may be declined based on location, intended use, or compliance risk.

  • Pricing-gap research cards
  • Forecast + METAR freshness checks
  • Public price vs weather-context gap
  • Transparent evidence trail
  • Watchlist and review workflow
  • Paper validation
  • Audit trail for later review
FAQ

Questions, answered plainly.

Does ProbStorm execute trades?+

No. ProbStorm is research-only. It does not route orders, place trades, connect to customer wallets, custody funds, store private keys, or automate customer execution.

Is this financial or gambling advice?+

No. ProbStorm provides data context and research workflow tooling. Users are responsible for their own decisions and must comply with local laws and platform terms.

Can users in restricted jurisdictions use ProbStorm?+

No. We do not onboard users from restricted jurisdictions or users seeking to bypass geoblocking, VPN restrictions, or platform terms.

Does ProbStorm guarantee profit?+

No. Markets can move against any view. ProbStorm improves research discipline and evidence visibility; it does not guarantee outcomes.

Is ProbStorm affiliated with Polymarket?+

No, unless explicitly stated. ProbStorm is an independent research tool.

What does “Watch / Paper-test / Ignore” mean?+

It is a research workflow status, not a trading instruction. Watch means evidence may deserve review, Paper-test means track the hypothesis without execution, and Ignore means evidence is stale, weak, conflicting, or not worth review.

Research the gap before you decide.

Request a research demo to see how ProbStorm surfaces pricing-gap candidates, checks evidence freshness, and produces a transparent research-only card. ProbStorm does not execute trades or provide advice.

Future research verticals may include other event-driven markets; the current focus is weather.
ProbStorm logo ProbStorm

ProbStorm is an independent weather-market research platform. It does not execute trades, route orders, custody assets, provide wallet services, or provide financial, gambling, investment, legal, or tax advice.

ProbStorm is an independent weather-market research platform. It is not affiliated with Polymarket unless explicitly stated. ProbStorm does not execute trades, route orders, custody assets, provide wallet services, provide financial/gambling/investment/legal/tax advice, or guarantee outcomes. Prediction markets involve risk and may be restricted or unlawful in some jurisdictions. Users are responsible for complying with local laws and applicable platform terms. © 2026 ProbStorm.

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